US Dollar, Gold and Oil Talking Points:

• Gold Hold (XAU/USD)s lawn greater than $1,900
• Oil continues to slide as Russia-Ukraine talks take a more bullish stance
• US dollar retreats, risk sentiment limits gains
• S&P 500, NASDAQ (US Tech 100), DJI (Wall Street 30) climb. Is the feeling of risk back?

Will an agreement between Russia and Ukraine weigh on the US dollar?

Throughout the first quarter of the year, the US dollar remained supported by its safe-haven appeal as part of “risk aversion sentiment” limiting equity gains.

Amid heightened fundamental risks and growing inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve (US central bank) has taken a more aggressive approach to monetary tightening, as it remains committed to reducing price pressure without disrupting economic growth.

Visit the DailyFX Education Center to discover the policy impact in world markets

Although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine provided additional catalyst for price action and monetary policy, gold and oil fell during today’s trading session, allowing actions to aim higher. For gold and oil, the respective $1,900 (gold) and $100 p/b (oil) levels remain key support levels as USD strength loses its appeal.

Gold Technical Outlook:

While XAU/USD remains determined to reclaim the August 2021 high of $2,075, a hold above $1,900 will likely support the bullish trajectory for the yellow metal, with firm resistance at $1,959.

From a technical perspective, key Fibonacci levels from historical moves continue to provide both support and resistance for price action, forming a confluence zone between $1,899 and $2,000 that has historically kept bulls and bears at bay.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart

Chart prepared by Tammy DaCosta using TradingView

Oil outlook

For oil, commodity constraints resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic and bans on Russian oil have led to extraordinary developments in energy prices, with Brent and WTI breaking above the $100 mark. With prices remaining above this support level, an optimistic Shifting sentiment and lockdowns in Shanghai weighed on oil, hampering WTI’s ability to break above $120,000, which is currently resistance.

Although there has been a temporary shift in sentiment, the technical levels continue to provide additional levels of support and resistance for the medium to long term move.

Oil Daily Chart (WTI)

Chart prepared by Tammy DaCosta using TradingView

US indexes boost confidence as stocks rise

Meanwhile, global equities continued to benefit from the return of “risk sentiment”, supporting the S&P (US 500), NASDAQ and DJI (Wall Street 30).

For the S&P, prices remain within the key Fibonacci levels of 4551 and 4669 respectively, the key Fibonacci levels of the 2021-2022 move.

While price action remains above the 20-day MA (moving average), a break below 4551 could see 4500 come into play with the next level of support holding at 4385.7 (the retracement of 38.2% of the movement mentioned above).

S&P 500 (US 500) Daily Chart

Chart prepared by Tammy DaCosta using TradingView

— Written by Tammy Da Costa, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Tammy on Twitter: @Tams707